Science Bulletin | 气溶胶是导致全球数值天气预报模型中气温预报偏差的关键因素

Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models

Abstract

Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosol, despite the consensus that aerosol is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we demonstrate that atmospheric aerosol is one of the important drivers biasing daily temperature prediction. By comparing observations and the GFS, we find that the monthly-averaged bias in the 24-h temperature forecast varies between ± 1.5 °C in regions influenced by atmospheric aerosol. The biases depend on the properties of aerosol, the underlying land surface, and aerosol-cloud interactions over oceans. It is also revealed that forecast errors are rapidly magnified over time in regions featuring high aerosol loadings. Our study provides direct “observational” evidence of aerosol’s impacts on daily weather forecast, and bridges the gaps between the weather forecast and climate science regarding the understanding of the impact of atmospheric aerosol.

Reference

Huang, X., and Ding, A.: Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models, Science Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.05.009, 2021.