读外刊：人工智能无法胜任怎样的工作？

今天继续分享经济学人文章“A different dystopia: July 2030”精读笔记。一起读外刊，学英语，看世界。

第一段精读笔记：读外刊：在未来，机器人太多会成为阻挡社会繁荣的威胁吗？

第二段精读笔记：读外刊：机器人会抢走哪些人的工作？

第三段原文

But these dire forecasts did not come to pass, for two reasons. First, AI failed to advance as quickly as some people thought it would. In 2018 Rodney Brooks, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), forecast that driverless-car services comparable to conventional taxis were unlikely before 2032 and that a robot which could navigate its way around the steps and clutter of an ordinary home would not become widespread until 2035. With just a few years to go, he seems likely to be proved right on both counts. During the 2020s robots powered by AI became more widespread, changing many industries and taking over repetitive jobs. But they were not cheap and still cannot handle many tasks requiring human discretion or empathy. In nursing and social care, in particular, robots are not up to the job.

(1) But these dire forecasts did not come to pass, for two reasons. First, AI failed to advance as quickly as some people thought it would.

dire：extremely serious or terrible极其严重的，极可怕的

come to pass 实现，发生

fail to do sth. 未能…… 未做到……

(2)In 2018 Rodney Brooks, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), forecast that driverless-car services comparable to conventional taxis were unlikely before 2032 and that a robot which could navigate its way around the steps and clutter of an ordinary home would not become widespread until 2035.

长句分析：是状语，是主语，是的同位语，是介词短语作professor的定语，是主句谓语，是that引导的宾语从句，作forecast的宾语，forecast与第二段的predict是同义替换，是形容词词组作driverless-car services的后置定语，是宾语从句的谓语部分，that引导的另一个宾语从句，同样作forecast的宾语，是which引导的定语从句，修饰限定robot，是宾语从句的谓语部分。

driverless-car 无人驾驶汽车

例句1：Driverless carsare proving harder to develop than most people expected. 无人驾驶汽车的开发比大多数人预期的更难。

例句2：Today the country is at the global frontier of new technology in everything from mobile payments todriverless cars. 如今，从移动支付到无人驾驶汽车，中国在方方面面都处于全球新技术的前沿。

comparable：being equally important, good, bad etc〔重要性、好坏等〕同等的，可相提并论的

例句：唐弢《故乡的雨》中，“可是跑到外面，没有山，没有湖，也没有经雨的嫩绿的叶子，一切都不及晴天好”：While in the open, seeing no mountains, nor lakes, nor rain-drenched soft green leaves, you'll find nothingcomparableto a fine day.

(3)With just a few years to go, he seems likely to be proved right on both counts. During the 2020s robots powered by AI became more widespread, changing many industries and taking over repetitive jobs. But they were not cheap and still cannot handle many tasks requiring human discretion or empathy. In nursing and social care, in particular, robots are not up to the job.

on all/several/both counts各个/几个/双方面

例句1：We might objecton both counts我们可能对这两点都不赞成

例句2：It was important that they secured a large and widespread audience. They failedon both counts. 赢得数量多、分布面广的观众对他们来说很重要，但他们这两点都没能做到。

take over接管；接收

discretion：the ability and right to decide exactly what should be done in a particular situation决断能力；处理权；酌情决定权

常用的搭配为：at somebody’s discretion (=according to someone’s decision，根据某人的决定、意愿，由某人斟酌决定），use/exercise your discretion（使用决定权）。

例句：The awards are madeat the discretion ofthe committee. 获奖者由委员会决定。

empathy：the ability to understand other people’s feelings and problems同情；同感，共鸣

up to：clever, good, or well enough to do something 胜任；有资格做；适于〔做某事〕

例句：I’m afraid Tim just isn’tup tothe job. 蒂姆怕是干不了这份工作。

官译：但这些可怕的预测没能成真，原因有二。首先，AI的进步不像某些人预想的那样快。2018年，麻省理工学院的教授罗德尼·布鲁克斯(RodneyBrooks)预测，在2032年之前，无人驾驶汽车服务不大可能与传统的出租车相媲美，而能在普通住宅中上下台阶并绕过杂物障碍的机器人要到2035年才开始普及。现在离他预测的时限只差几年了，看起来这两个预测都是对的。在2020年代，由人工智能驱动的机器人变得更加普及，改变了许多行业并接管了重复性工作。但它们并不便宜，而且仍然无法处理许多需要人为判断或同情心的任务。特别是在护理和社会照护方面，机器人无法胜任工作。

第四段原文

Second, the 2020s showed that the level of employment depends on more than just automation: it also depends on ageing and immigration. As their populations aged, rich countries saw their workforces shrink. Many invested more in robots as they aged, and some let in more migrants, plugging some of the skills gaps and boosting productivity. Countries with relatively slow ageing and lots of robots did best. But those that underinvested in automation, or shut themselves off from the world, were hard hit.

plug the gap：to provide something that is needed, because there is not enough填补空缺

例句：With so few trained doctors, paramedics were brought in toplug the gap. 训练有素的医生很少，所以引进了医务辅助人员来填补空缺。

shut themselves off from the world 闭关锁国

shut yourself off：to avoid meeting and talking to other people把自己封闭起来

官译：其次，2020年代已表明就业水平不仅仅取决于自动化，它还取决于老龄化和移民。随着人口老龄化，富裕国家的劳动力逐渐减少。许多国家在人口老化时加大了对机器人的投入，有些国家则引入了更多移民，填补了一些技能空白并提高了生产效率。衰老相对缓慢且机器人数量最多的国家表现最佳。但那些在自动化方面投资不足或闭关锁国的国家却遭到了严重打击。

以上。

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