blocks|key|4295229|text|我认为不是--在短期内。有了TDD和配对编程等东西，似乎更小、更敏捷的团队才是发展的方向。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4295230|我总是回想起像“神秘的男人月”这样的事情。我可以有一个拥有1000名开发人员的大公司--但这并不意味着1000个工时的项目可以在一天内完成。|4295231|只是看起来效果不太好|4295232|entityMap^0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|I|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|J|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|-4|5|6|7|K|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|G|$]]

I would argue no - in the short run. With things like TDD and paired programming and other stuff, it just seems like smaller more agile teams are the way to go.

And I always go back to things like "The Mythical Man Month". I could have a huge corporation with 1000 developers - but that doesn't mean a 1000 man hour project would be done in a day.

Just doesn't seem like it would work well

blocks|key|1078000|text|一些人会把目光投向印度的大型开发机构，并认为一旦所有的问题都解决了，这就是一种可能性。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1078001|entityMap^0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|D|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|-4|5|6|7|E|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|C|$]]

Some would look to the large development houses in India and see this as a possibility once the kinks are all worked out.

blocks|key|1401942|text|人们总是试图使软件的生成自动化。只编写UML，然后从程序中神奇地编写软件。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1401943|但是sys-admins总是需要的，也许不再那么多了。而且市场上有成千上万的小型it基础设施和服务器托管公司。|1401944|软件开发也是如此。随着工具和框架等一切的改进，对实际程序员的需求将会减少。但总会有小公司做定制的东西，而像SAP这样的大公司则在构建大框架。而且还得有人来写框架。|1401945|所以不要担心你的工作:)|1401946|entityMap^0|0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|J|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|K|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|G|5|6|7|M|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|H|3|-4|5|6|7|N|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|I|$]]

There were always attempts to automate the generation of software. To only write UML and then have the software being written magically from a program. 

But sys-admins are always needed maybe not so much anymore. And there are thousands of small it infrastructure and server hosting companies out there. 

It will be the same with software development. With the improving of tools and frameworks and everything the need for actual programmers will decrease. But there will always be the small companies doing custom stuff and the big companies like SAP building the big frameworks. 
And somebody has to write the frameworks as well. 

So don't fear for your job :)

blocks|key|4295337|text|也许是部分，但不是全部。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4295338|除了各种规模的软件公司(主要生产软件)之外，还有许多公司需要定制软件作为其产品的一部分-例如，雷达设备的固件。这样的公司雇佣了大量的个人开发人员，外包这样的工作既不实际也不有效，因为它需要有人为所需的东西创建确切的规范。创建好的规范可能比仅仅创建软件更困难。|4295339|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

Maybe partly, but not completely.

In addition to various sized software firms (that produce mainly software), there are many companies that need custom software as parts of their products - say, for instance, firmware for a radar device. Such companies employ lots of individual developers, and outsourcing such work is not practical nor effective, since it would require someone to create exact specs for what's needed. Creating good specs might be even more difficult than just creating the software.

blocks|key|4295362|text|我认为，廉价的商用硬件和资源的可用性，如“云计算”，增加了开发更加分散的动机。拥有巨大资源的大型公司，不再能够享受到相对于独立或较小规模的开发团队的优势。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|4295363|从某种意义上说，这就像有几家大型出版社，但仍然有许多独立作者(或作者群体)。例外的是所有那些较新的“汤姆·克兰西”系列小说，都是用笔名写的，代表了无数不为人知的作者。|4295364|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

I would argue that the availability of cheap commodity hardware and resources such as "cloud computing" increase the incentive for development be more decentralized. Massive corporations, with their huge resources, can no longer enjoying such an advantage over independent or smaller-sized development teams.

In a sense, it is like how there are a few big publishing houses out there, but still many independent authors (or groups of authors) out there. The exception would be things like all those newer "Tom Clancy" series novels, all written by a pen name that represents numerous untold authors.

blocks|key|1078157|text|我认为我们不会看到这种情况发生。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1078158|开发软件的很大一部分是对您正在工作的问题领域有深入的了解。一家大公司不可能拥有大量行业的重大问题领域知识。|1078159|与IT或HR等外围支持功能不同，软件开发也往往是使公司变得有价值的核心的一部分。外包核心能力是一个非常危险的提议。不仅存在巨大的知识产权问题，而且处理外包的公司总是有可能离开或决定不再做这项工作。如果发生这种情况，外包工作的公司基本上就死定了。|1078160|entityMap^0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|I|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|J|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|-4|5|6|7|K|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|G|$]]

I don't think that we'll see this happen.

A big part of developing software is having intimate knowledge of the problem domain that you're working in. There's no way that a single big company would be able to have significant problem domain knowledge for a large number of sectors.

Software development also tends to be part of the core that makes a company valuable, unlike peripheral support functions such as IT or HR. Outsourcing core competencies is a very dangerous proposition. Not only are there huge intellectual property concerns, but there's always the possibility that the company handling the outsourcing goes away or decides they don't want to do the work any more. If that happens, the company who outsourced the work is basically dead.

blocks|key|1078201|text|好的软件是为了提高用户的生产力而设计的，这主要意味着理解人们的工作以及他们是如何做这些工作的。考虑到组织和工作流程的多样性，这就需要设计师和开发人员尽可能接近应用程序的工作地点。所有试图将这些工作流程标准化为单个应用程序的尝试，最终都不可避免地以与任何人的工作都不匹配的软件而告终。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1078202|基于目前任何可用的软件开发过程，我不会在短期内担心这个问题。|1078203|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

Good software is designed to make users productive, and mostly that means understanding peoples' jobs and how they do them. Given the huge variety of organizations and work processes within them, that requires designers and developers who work as closely as possible to the point of application. All the attempts to normalize these work processes into a single application have inevitably ended up with software that matches no one's work.

I wouldn't worry about it any time soon, based on any software development process currently available, or cencieved of.

blocks|key|102882|text|不是的。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|102883|构建软件并不是一项伸缩性很好的活动。如果一个女人需要9个月才能生一个孩子，那么18个女人是不是需要一个月？上面有人提到了“神秘的人月”--这个问题最早是在那里被报道的。在某种程度上，团队中开发软件的通信和管理费用实际上开始阻碍前进的势头。|102884|还有一种观点认为，伟大的程序员和普通的程序员(或者-那些浪费时间在StackOverflow上发帖的人和那些不这么做的人)和虚构的(或者可能不是那么虚构的)净负面高效程序员-那些通过糟糕的实践、糟糕的设计决策或者以某种方式破坏团队士气的人，实际上会导致负面的生产力。|102885|另外，大多数软件公司专注于一种类型的软件或一种语言，而且总是有新的东西出来。“创新发生在别处”--一旦你足够大，你就可以舒适地做你一直在做的事情，所以你不会去寻找可能会破坏你现有模型的新东西。|102886|现在开源已经很大了--所以你不可能真的得到一家大公司，它会把除他们自己的软件之外的所有软件都锁起来。(无论微软多么想...)|102887|entityMap^0|0|0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|L|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|M|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|N|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|G|5|6|7|O|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|H|3|I|5|6|7|P|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|J|3|-4|5|6|7|Q|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|K|$]]

No.

Building software isn't an activity that scales well. If it takes one woman 9 months to have a baby, does it take 18 women one month? Someone above mentioned "The Mythical Man Month" - this problem was first covered there. At some point, communication and overhead costs of developing software in a team actually begins to hinder forward momentum. 

There's also the argument that there's a factor of 10 difference in productivity between great programmers and an average programmer (or - those that waste their time posting on StackOverflow and those that don't) And the mythical (or perhaps not-so-mythical) Net-Negative Productive Programmers - those that through bad practices, bad design decisions, or in some way destroying team morale actually cause negative productivity.

Plus, most software houses specialize in a type of software, or a language, and there's new stuff coming out all the time. "Innovation Happens Elsewhere" - once you're big enough, you're comfortable doing what you've always done, so you're not going to be looking for new things that may destroy your current model. 

And open source is big now - so you can't really get a big company that's going to lock out all software except for theirs. (No matter how much Microsoft wants to...)

blocks|key|1078329|text|服务器的管理是可以自动化的。运行良好的现代服务器场不再需要sysadmin直接登录到服务器。一切都通过自动化进行部署和管理。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1078330|这与软件开发形成对比，在软件开发中，每个单独的程序仍然必须由实际的人编写。没有创造行为的自动化。由于这个原因，软件开发更像是一门手艺，而不是一种行业。一个行业可以向上和向外扩展。工艺只能通过分割成独立的组进行扩展。这就是1000个开发人员项目的工作方式。他们完全由六个人组成的团队组成。|1078331|所以，不，除非有人发明了一个真正的工具来自动化创建软件的行为，并将其从一个手工艺转变为一个行业，否则你不会看到与sysadmins相同的趋势。你所看到的是，这门手艺正在低工资国家被采用，雇佣廉价的工匠可能更具成本效益。注意，我说的是“能”，而不是“将”。软件开发的最大成本是沟通，而当你离岸时，沟通是最有可能失控的。|1078332|entityMap^0|0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|I|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|E|5|6|7|J|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|F|3|-4|5|6|7|K|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|G|$]]

Administration of servers is something that can be automated. A well-run modern server farm doesn't have sysadmins logging into a server directly anymore. Everything is deployed and managed through automation.

Contrast this with software development, where every individual program still has to be written by an actual human. There's no automation of the creation act. Because of this reason, software development is more like a craft than like an industry. An industry can scale up and out. A craft can only scale through segmentation into independent groups. This is how 1000-developer projects work. They consist entirely out of teams of half a dozen people.

So, no, unless someone invents a genuine tool for automating the act of creating software, and turns it from a craft into an industry, you're not going to see the same trend as for sysadmins. What you do see is that the craft is being taken up in low-wage countries, and that it can be more cost-effective to hire cheap craftsmen. Notice that i said "can", not "will". The largest cost of software development is communication, and communication is the most likely to spiral out of control when you offshore.

blocks|key|1078377|text|大公司愿意这样做，但它永远不会被完全拥有。首先，大型组织将受到一系列问题的困扰，这些问题总是困扰着大公司。|type|unstyled|depth|inlineStyleRanges|entityRanges|data|1078378|永远不要与一个开发人员或小团队打赌，他们有一个专注的目标和编写好代码的技能。所有人都可以轻松获取最佳实践、优秀的工具和知识。没有理由(事实上有很多理由不这样做)将开发转移到集中式组织。|1078379|entityMap^0|0|0^^$0|@$1|2|3|4|5|6|7|F|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|B|3|C|5|6|7|G|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]|$1|D|3|-4|5|6|7|H|8|@]|9|@]|A|$]]]|E|$]]

Large companies will for to do this, but it will never be owned completely. For one thing, the large organizations will suffer from the host of problems that always plague large corporations. 

Never bet against a single developer or small team with a focused goal and the skills to write good code. Best practices, great tools and knowledge are easily accessible by all. There is no reason (in fact there are many reasons not to) to move development to centralized organizations.

In the systems-admin sector, servers and IT infrastructure is being moved into datacenters and IT staff are sometimes cut. Is it possible for the same thing to happen to software developers, that the world's software could be produced by a few massive corporations instead of by so many developers?

Will software development ever be consolidated?

翻译质量差，导致语言生硬或混乱。

没有提供实际的解决方法或示例。

解答不清晰，无法理解或解决问题。

页面排版不美观，阅读体验差。

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在系统管理部门，服务器和IT基础设施正在迁移到数据中心，IT员工有时会被裁减。有没有可能同样的事情发生在软件开发人员身上，世界上的软件可以由几个大公司生产，而不是由这么多的开发人员生产？

问软件开发会被整合吗？
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