专栏首页VoiceVista语音智能老兄,这看起来很不对劲 - 对比美国2009年H1N1病毒与中国2020年新冠病毒世界舆论的不同反映

老兄,这看起来很不对劲 - 对比美国2009年H1N1病毒与中国2020年新冠病毒世界舆论的不同反映

文章链接- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo/?trackingId=anJAduSt77YnVQrezmdl%2Fw%3D%3D

加油中国!

2009年美国H1N1流感病毒的爆发,最终宣布成为全球疫情(global pandemic)和国际紧急事件,其最终造成了超过6000万人感染和最初的至少18,449例的致死案例。

但实际上H1N1所造成的全球疫情爆发其最终后果实际上要严重的多,根据美国CDC于2012年最终统计(final tallies),造成超过了300,000例死亡。

当中国人正在最前线抗击始于武汉的新冠状病毒的时候,国外舆论汹涌的对中国的负面的攻击(negative forces attaching China)看起来相当的令人不解和古怪。

在2009年H1N1爆发的时候,我们并没有在全球范围内看到各种反美的仇外和攻击(xenophobic anti-America attacks)。事实上,美国整整花费了六个月才最终宣布国家紧急状态(declare national emergency)。从2009年4月到6月,当H1N1宣布为国际紧急全球疫情的时候,是否有任何国家提示其国民离开美国,或关闭其边境么?没有,一点都没有。

以下为20世纪主要的疫情爆发汇总 -

正如我所说的,事情看起来不那么对劲。我看到了可恨的充满仇恨的对中国政府的攻击,宣称其有意向国际社会低估感染数字,但实际上对于类似流感爆发的情况就是如此,而无论是哪个国家。

比如美国H1N1感染数字就被大大的低估了,在3年后才又公布了更新数字。因为,我的朋友,这就是类似这种病毒爆发的疫情的自然本质。

因为各国永远面临着人手短缺,测试试剂盒短缺(test kits),药品的短缺或其他医疗设备的短缺。中国并没有试图去隐藏这些困难(hardships),相反,他们对此非常清楚,他们正在每天汇总最新的疫情数据。

非常不幸的是,每天总会有人会死去,我们时间上很难区分这些不幸死去的同胞是否是因为特定的病毒所造成的。(particular virus)。这是事实,并不仅是中国或中国政府才会出现的问题。

这不是一场阴谋,而仅仅是灾难。(Its not a conspiracy, its just tragedy)

根据2012年美国CDC在2009年H1N1爆发三年后所发布的跟踪报告,声明其先前的18,449例死亡案例,是远远地低于真正的数字,主要原因在于很多死于流感相关的(flu-related)病症。

链接参加明尼苏达大学感染疾病研究与政策中心 - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000

那么在2009年的时候,是否象现在这样大规模的指责美国医疗当局和政府当局么(government authorities)?是否会有人戴上隐藏式摄像头溜进梅奥诊所来搜集证据?

这些恶毒的攻击的荒谬之处在于(the absurdity of these vicious attacks),实际上只要是肺部疾病(pneunonia)症状,而无论是感染了什么类型的病毒,其所需要的支持治疗是相似的。

全世界都应该为中国政府所采取的史无前例的(unprecedented),广泛的和进取的(aggressive)快速反应而鼓掌。中国政府采取了所有可能的手段,甚至以牺牲庞大的经济增长为代价(enormous economic sacrifice)。

我们看到的是整个政府体系(entire system of government)以超过全球任何一个国家的速度在响应,而我们却仍在不厌其烦的争论为什么某些武汉地方官员为什么没有更早几周发现疫情。

这些地方官员看起来确实是搞砸了(screw up),并且自身在付出代价,会受到发来的惩罚(justice gets served later)。但这不应该成为对整个国家政府的指控(indictment)。对比实际上很多西方国家,很多政客仍然逃脱了惩罚,尸位素餐。人会犯错,人有时候会相当的愚蠢,人会贪婪,这一点是人类的本性,与国籍,人种无关。

实际上美国CDC研究人员估计“2009年H1N1病毒疫情造成了201,000例呼吸感染死亡(respiratory death),以及另外83,000例心血管(cardiovascular)疾病相关的H1N1感染死亡”,合计284,000例死亡。

期间是否有任何针对美国的任何时长的旅行禁令么(travel ban)?中国,德国或日本是否发布了任何针对美国旅行者的边境禁令么?

近期美国国务院政策建议美国公民离开中国,随后英国大使馆也发布了类似的建议。

在2009年英国政府是否发布了针对美国的撤侨和旅行禁令么?

2009年美国是否遭受到了排外地攻击(xenophobically attach),或者是以美国为目标的反美情绪呢(anti-American sentiments)?

事实上目前你待在中国比离开中国更加的安全。因为现在几乎每个中国人都待在家里负责任的自我隔离(dutifully isolate themselves)。更不要说政府还要保障社区的安全,保护其国民,并且以极其庞大的高达千亿美金的经济损失为代价。

我的一个在美国亚利桑那州的朋友说,那个地方曾经人满为患的中国城自助餐现在门可罗雀。

让我们理性的做一个比拟。假如你在美国迈阿密,而意大利的米兰正在爆发病毒感染,那么你会取消你在迈阿密意大利餐厅的预定么?当然不会。下周你还会吃意大利比萨么?当然会的。

又比如你在新加坡听说美国德州有疫情爆发,那么你会取消去新加坡的美国德克萨斯州人开的德州BBQ用餐么?

再比如那么你会避免与看起来象意大利人接触么?

目前国际社会中有一种奇怪的毫无意义的霸道的极端主义舆论和行为(strange senseless bullying extremism and activism),我们都要尽量避免成为其一部分。

人们已经厌倦了一小部分极端人士的引发仇恨的煽动(fomented)。

最后让我们来点干货(straight up),有意义的和精确的描述在武汉爆发的冠状病毒。就如同H1N1不应被成为America Virus一样,发生在武汉的新型冠状病毒也不应称之为武汉病毒。

期待经过几个星期的努力之后,这个流感季的(flu season type virus)最终会过去,本应到来的春节的欢娱终会到来。

以下为有关新型冠状病毒的一些事实总结 -

  1. 此新型冠状病毒具有高度的传染性(highly contagious),非常容易传播,会引发肺部组织(lung tissue)病变,且比普通的呼吸系统感染更加严重。普通的呼吸系统感染仅仅影响喉部和支气管(bronchial tubes)。
  2. 目前来看新型冠状病毒的致死率大致为2%,比流感的大致0.1%的致死率高20倍。但是也远远低于SARS的9&和MERS的37%
  3. 新型冠状病毒在大约10%-15%的感染者会引发严重症状(severe symptoms)。其中80%-90%的死亡发生在较年长的人群,大部分存在其他的健康问题。H1N1对所有人群一视同仁,甚至包括青壮年和儿童。
  4. 中国创纪录的在最短时间确认和分享了基因序列(identify and share the genome in record times),并发现某些抗病毒药似乎对该病毒有作用。
  5. 中国各级政府在短时间内的响应,比如大规模的限制人群流动,限制运输和限制一定时间的商业活动,并且得到了广大群众的负责人的自觉支持(voluntary dutiful cooperation),待在家里数周隔离减少传播。这种响应模式,已经得到了国际社会的赞赏(be hailed by the international community)。实际上也创立了一个空前绝后的新标准(remarkable unprecedented),对于其他可能面临疫情爆发的国家很有参考意义。这非常不容易而且成本巨大(invonvenient and costly)。但是,一切都值得。

这个世界有时候看起来上下颠倒是非不分,但是事情远比我们想象的要复杂,甚至需要穷极一生去探究。

我们需要尽所能去终止目前所发生的,对中国的恶毒的(vicious),政治化的,排外的和种族主义的攻击(xenophobic racist attach)和抹黑。

如果你不能对中国或中国人民报以支持和同情,至少我们需要对那些恶毒的攻击

以下为原文 --

加油中国!When the United States 2009 H1N1 swine flu emerged, an international emergency, a declared global pandemic, it eventually infected 60 million and initially killed a minimum of 18,449 cases that year. But the final story of the H1N1 global pandemic was far worse than that, with close to 300,000 deaths, according to the final tallies in 2012 reported by the CDC, as you will read below.

Which is why I am scratching my head at how bizarrely negative forces are attacking China and Chinese people as it engages a remarkably aggressive front addressing this Corona virus outbreak which started in Wuhan, central China. I am forced to ask and answer a few questions.

During 2009 H1N1 outbreak, I don't recall xenophobic anti-America attacks across the globe, do you? In fact, do you recall it took six months for the U.S. to declare a national emergency? Did any government from the onset in April 2009 through the end in April 2010, including the month of June, when H1N1 was declared an international emergency global pandemic, then send out a notice to its citizens that they should leave the United States? Close their borders to American travelers? Nope, not a peep.

Like I said, something's not right, folks. I am reading hateful vicious attacks on the Chinese government for their supposed intentional conspiracy to intentionally under report the number of infections, yet that is exactly and always the case with such flu outbreaks no matter what country and the CDC reports illustrate that crystal clear. The U.S. H1N1 swine flu numbers were vastly underestimated and updated three years later, because dear friends, that is the nature of such viral outbreaks which don't care which country they started in. There is never enough man power, there are never enough test kits, there is never enough medicine or medical supplies. China is not trying to hide these hardships, they are well known, they are being reported on the news daily in China. There are always people who die, thousands of them whom we'll never know if they actually died because of a particular virus. Those are the facts, not any problem unique to China's healthcare system or government.

Its not a conspiracy, its just tragedy.

According to the June 27, 2012 research report followup three years later, it gets much more disturbing when you learn about the CDC's final estimate of the H1N1 virus global death toll. You and I find at this at this article at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy website, the CDC's 18,449 total deaths number was "...regarded as WELL BELOW THE TRUE TOTAL, mainly because many people who die of flu-related causes are not tested for the disease." So during the 2009 outbreak, was anyone accusing the American medical and government authorities of hiding the numbers? Were Americans with hidden cameras strolling into the Mayo Clinic to PROVE how many people were really dying? The absurdity of these vicious attacks are that whether or not a person specifically does have the Corona virus or some other viral bug presenting as pneumonia, the treatment is the same supportive treatment anyway.

Something's not right here folks. The world should be applauding China's unprecedented, broad, aggressive response. (WHO officials and many other government and healthcare officials across the globe are.) I am on the ground here in China READ IT HERE watching with my own eyes and it is quite incredible by any measure, not to mention an enormous economic sacrifice.

Instead of looking at the will of an entire system of government acting faster than any other government on the planet could, we are one month later, still busy bashing a few local government officials in Wuhan who should have told us a couple weeks sooner. And yes, that is true those local officials screwed up. And by the way, those officials are in deep trouble for it. Just like the recent Puerto Rican politicians who are in trouble when we learned they didn't distribute hurricane emergency supplies that were sent to them to help during last year's terrible hurricane. A disgrace. Individual people screw up all the time and hopefully justice gets served later, but that's not an indictment of an entire country's government. Secondly, on this point, every provincial government has sent out a notice to its government officials pretty much saying that if they are stupid enough to do the same, they will face the wrath of harsh punishment. I don't doubt it for a moment. Lets contrast to what countless western politicians have gotten away with and remain in office to remind all of us that human error, stupidity and greed is not unique to any particular skin color or race or country. "What about..." reactions don't help.

And here's the mic drop for you: "The CDC researchers estimate that the H1N1 2009 pandemic virus caused 201,200 respiratory deaths and another 83,300 deaths from cardiovascular disease associated with H1N1 infections." Total: 284,000 deaths. Shocking, isn't it?

Was there a travel ban for any length of time to and from the United States?

Did China, Germany, Japan or any other country close their border to American travelers?

Today I noticed in the updates that following the United States Department of State policy suggesting U.S. citizens leave China, the United Kingdom embassy just released the same recommendation to subjects of the kingdom.

In 2009, did UK subjects in America get a notice from their kingdom to leave America? No.

Did the world suggest we isolate from America? Close the U.S. borders!? No.

Did Americans get xenophobically attacked and targeted by anti-American sentiments like the Chinese are experiencing now? Um, no.

Fascinating and disturbing to say the least. If you're an expat currently in China, unless you're in Wuhan, fact is that you're most likely safer and more peaceful and more stable by simply staying put than by leaving right now. You couldn't be safer than in this country, where almost everyone is staying home and dutifully isolating themselves with awareness. Not to mention that the Chinese government's decision to safeguard the society, the families, the people, is coming at a devastating economic cost in the hundreds of billions.

I have a friend in Mesa, Arizona. He told me earlier that the big popular China City buffet, a huge busy place, has no customers. Does that make any sense at all?

Let's test our ability to reason, to be rational:

If you were in Miami and you heard that there was a virus outbreak that started in Milan, in central Italy, would you cancel your dinner reservation at the Italian restaurant that night in South Beach? No. Would you buy a pizza next week at Joey's Pizzeria in Delray Beach?

If you were in Singapore and you heard there was a virus outbreak in Dallas, Texas in the central United States, would you stop going to your favorite local Texas southern BBQ restaurant with the owner from Houston, in Singapore?

Would you avoid olive-skinned dark-haired Italian-looking people on the street in Chicago? Would you avoid big guys wearing cowboy hats, cuz they're obviously from Texas in Singapore cuz there's a virus in Dallas and they might have just gotten off the plane? There's a strange senseless bullying extremism and activism in today's society and you should do your best to avoid it and not be a part of it. It is fomented by a small group of extremist activists while definitely not supported by your average mainstream person who is simply exhausted by their outrage-inducing antics.

Finally, here are some straight up, sensible accurate descriptions of this Corona virus which started in Wuhan, China. Its not called the China virus and neither was H1N1 called the America virus. Whether two weeks or two months from now, this flu season type virus will have passed and the joy of Spring will have arrived. Just like every flu season. However, don't misunderstand me. The extra caution and the remarkable response by the Chinese governments and people together to quell the spread of this virus was warranted because, yes it is correct that this corona virus is nastier than the usual annual flu bug, as was H1N1 in 2009. As of now, what we can confidently note the following regarding this Corona virus:

  1. This Corona virus is highly contagious, it spreads quite easily. It binds to lung tissue and so in particular, likes to cause pneumonia, that's what infection of lung tissue is. That's more severe than a respiratory infection which is only in your throat or bronchial tubes.
  2. The Corona virus currently has a 2% death rate. That's a lot higher, around 20x higher, than a more typical annual flu virus with a death rate of 0.1%. However, a 2% death rate is still much lower by comparison to the SARS virus which had a 9% death rate or the MERS virus with a really nasty 37% death rate.
  3. The Corona virus is causing severe symptoms in 10-15% of cases. 80% to 90% of deaths from this virus are happening in elderly patients, mostly with other existing health problems, not younger people. That characteristic by the way, is in contrast to the America 2009 H1N1 swine flu virus which in fact had a higher death rate amongst younger people including children rather than those over 60 years old.
  4. China identified and shared the Corona virus genome in record times, in only days and of course, immediately shared it with all international health and disease organizations. Medical researchers are already discovering that certain existing anti-viral medications seem to be effective against this Corona virus.
  5. Its impossible not to marvel at China's broad and aggressive domestic response directed by the provincial level governments to restrict movement, restrict transportation, restrict business for a period of time combined with the voluntary dutiful cooperation of its 1.3 billion citizens who are in the majority quietly staying at home these weeks to let the virus pass; this model response is already being hailed by the international community as a remarkable unprecedented response setting a new standard in understanding what is possible for future outbreaks in whatever country they may occur. Is it inconvenient and costly. You bet.

Like I said, something's not right with the way humanity is responding to what's happening here. I haven't put my finger on it because well, its certainly complex and the world is upside down in many other ways that I also can't for the life of me understand or explain without ending up writing a very thick book.

But I do know this: It needs to stop. This vicious, political, xenophobic racist attacks and smearing of all things China needs to stop. Its really not helping anyone in the political corridors of Washington nor is it doing anything to help the man on the street who is just concerned with taking care of his family.

My family is originally from the Basilicata region of Italy, the little hillside Italian towns of Potenza and also, Grottola, which is just outside of Matera. They left their home country and moved to America where I was born, in Yonkers, New York. America became their home and it was my home until I left, too. Now over two decades ago, I left the United States, the country I was born in, the country that has plenty to admire and plenty to improve. But I left and I came to China and now China is my home. If you had asked me thirty years ago if this was my life plan on planet earth, I would have said you were nuts or a really bad fortune teller. But that's how it has turned out. I am truly blessed with my lovely Chinese wife and our family living here in Shenyang in China's northeast. You get my meaning? I am a mature adult like many with the powers of observation. I can easily see that whether we are talking about China or the United States or any other country, their societies and their governments have good points and bad points.

The xenophobia needs to stop now. Whether in a couple of weeks or months later, this nasty flu type Corona virus will begin declining and the joy of Spring will arrive. Between now and then if you don't have anything good, anything supportive to say about China or Chinese people, how about you just keep your mouth shut.

本文分享自微信公众号 - VoiceVista语音智能(AIndustrialRock),作者:深思睿

原文出处及转载信息见文内详细说明,如有侵权,请联系 yunjia_community@tencent.com 删除。

原始发表时间:2020-02-08

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