客户关系管理的k-波

你是否注意到现在是非常时期。最近，我的一个观点是，客户关系管理正渗透到社会中，在社会中扮演着巨大的角色，我将其称为社会的”CRMification”。在经济学中，我们经常看到颠覆性创新不断上升，成为社会需要和渴望的东西，直到它成为必需品。如果你有一个长远的眼光，你可以看看电力、电话、水、卫生服务、天然气输送和电缆的崛起，举几个在过去150年遵循这条道路的例子。你也可以用同样的方式指出社交媒体的迅速崛起，不过仍有些不确定，因为所有其他例子都可以被视为纯粹的商品。关于社交网络，目前还没有定论。

驾驭IT的浪潮

所有这些事情都有一个共同点，就是需要一个庞大的基础设施，而这些基础设施通常部署在一个虚拟循环模型中。这个新兴产业将利润再投资于基础设施建设，直到服务覆盖90%以上的人口。然后政府可能会参与到最后一英里。比如，上世纪30年代，美国设立了田纳西流域管理局(Tennessee Valley Authority)，并实施了类似的项目，将电力输送到农村消费者手中，因为农村用户的消费不能成为私人资本投资基础设施建设的理由。用经济术语来说，这是被称为”k波”的50-60年经济周期的前半年，这是我非常感兴趣的一个话题。我认为我们正在看到今天信息技术领域发生的类似k波的事情。实际上，我们正在观察这波浪潮的后半段，因为IT基础设施很大程度上是建立起来的，而我们现在正在通过效率和规模经济深入地优化利益。上周，当Salesforce宣布”快速启动商务解决方案”(Quick Start Commerce Solutions)时，所有这些都是我最关心的问题。这是一组为我们所生活的时代提供的产品和服务，很可能会对未来的社会产生永久性影响。该项目主要提供四种服务，帮助从事D2C消费者和必需品、食品杂货和食品服务、在线购买和路边取货，以及B2B——几乎是冠状病毒时代必不可少的商业模式。这些解决方案勾起了许多对社会至关重要的条条框框，它们一旦开始将发展自己生活的商业模式。换句话说，它们会存在很长一段时间。

远见或是短视

它们还与我一直在琢磨的另一个想法有关，那就是整合像电缆或电力这样的基础IT设施。我唯一的犹豫是在试图理解社会的毁灭是否代表了一种单独的效用的形成，或者它是否是其中的一部分，也可能是一种驱动力。我相信我们正处在一个被称为”信息和电信时代”的时代，这个时代开始于20世纪70年代，当时我还在上高中。k波工作很多，耗时很长，而且很容易被忽视，因为它的持续时间通常比一个人的工作寿命还要长。因此，很难确定开始和结束的日期，这也是我觉得它们如此吸引人的原因之一。因为历史的存在，我们都可以见证一个时代的来来去去。更重要的是，有了这些知识，我们就可以更好地决定如何经营生活。

These are extraordinary times, in case you haven't noticed.

One of my contentions these days is that CRM is penetrating society to a point that it is taking on an outsized role, and I have called this the ‘‘CRMification” of society.

In economics we often see a disruptive innovation climb a ladder as it becomes something that society needs, as well as wants, until it becomes essential. If you have a long time horizon you can look at the rise of electricity, telephone, water, sanitation services, natural gas delivery and cable, to name a few examples that have followed that path over the last 150 years.

You also can point to the rapid rise of social media in the same vein, though I hesitate because all the other examples can be considered unalloyed goods. The jury is still out on social.

Riding the IT Wave

All of these things have in common the need for a massive infrastructure that usually is deployed in a virtual-circle model. The budding industry reinvests its profits into building infrastructure until the service reaches greater than 90 percent of the population. Then government might get involved in going the last mile.

This happened for instance in the 1930s when the U.S. created the Tennessee Valley Authority and similar programs to bring electricity to rural customers whose consumption could not justify a private capital investment in infrastructure build-out.

In economic parlance this is the first half of a 50-60 year economic cycle called a ‘‘K-wave,” which is a topic of great interest to me.

I think we're seeing what looks like a K-wave happening in information technology today. Actually, we're watching the second half of the wave, because the IT infrastructure largely is built out, and we're now deep into optimizing the benefits through efficiencies and economies of scale.

All of this was top of mind for me last week, when Salesforce announced Quick Start Commerce Solutions, a group of products and services for the times we live in, which likely will have a permanent effect on society going forward.

The program has four main offerings to help organizations engaged in D2C consumer and essential goods, grocery and food service, buy online and curbside pickup, and B2B -- pretty much the essential commerce modes of the coronavirus era.

These solutions tick a lot of boxes for being essential to society and they suggest modes of commerce that, once started, will develop lives of their own. In other words, they'll be around a long time.

Long View, Short Lives

They also play into another idea I've been noodling on, the consolidation of an IT utility as fundamental as cable or electricity.

My only hesitation is in trying to understand if the CRMification of society represents a separate utility forming or if it is part of, and likely a driving force of, the first.

K-waves take a long time to play out. I believe we are in one called the ‘‘age of information and telecommunications” that started when I was in high school in the 1970s.

K-waves do a lot and take a while, and they are overlooked easily because they usually last longer than an individual's work life. As a result, it's hard to pinpoint start and end dates, and it's one reason I find them so fascinating.

With the benefit of history, we can all bear witness to the comings and goings of eras. More importantly, armed with this knowledge we can make better decisions about how to run our lives