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特斯拉的价值怎么了?

去年告诉我们,股市和经济之间的联系充其量是不精确的。

尽管一些有用的评论强调这两者至少有一定的联系,但很明显,许多美国人可能会失去工作和金融安全,同时股市可能继续上涨,就像繁荣时代永远不会结束一样。

今天的市场似乎不愿意根据股票过去的表现、当前的表现或分析师预期的未来表现来评估股票,而是根据投资者对他们喜欢的公司所设想的最美好的未来来评估股票。

这就是宏观形势;2021年教会了我们它的微观气候——无论基本面发生了什么,规模较小的股票集团都可以继续上涨。

为了避免所有无用的在Twitter上抱怨,是的,特斯拉能够实现GAAP利润——尽管有时是通过出售监管信用——是一个胜利,而加入标准普尔500指数(s&p500)是一件伟大的事情。2020年交付50万辆汽车,占通用汽车第三季度交付量的75%,同样令人印象深刻。

我当然不是说特斯拉一文不值,也不是说像方舟创新ETF这样的公司集团定价过高。相反,今天的市场似乎不愿意根据股票过去的表现、当前的表现或分析师预期的未来表现来评估股票,而愿意根据投资者为他们喜爱的公司设想的最美好的未来来评估股票。

如果你在网上谈论股票的话,你可以看到这种逻辑的原理在起作用。例如,别把特斯拉称为汽车公司——尽管汽车收入占该公司第三季度营收的近87%。特斯拉是一家电池公司,它的忠实粉丝会告诉你。

原文:The last year taught us that the connection between the stock market and the economy is imprecise at best.

Despite some useful commentary underscoring the two are at least somewhat linked, it’s clear that many Americans can lose their jobs and financial security at the same time that stocks can keep on rising like the boom times will never end.

It seems that today’s market is willing to value stocks not on their past performance, current performance or analyst-expected future performance but on the rosiest future that investors have imagined for their favorite companies.

That’s the macro picture; 2021 is teaching us its microcorollary — smaller groups of stocks can keep rising regardless of what is going on with their fundamentals.

To avoid all useless Twitter whining, yes, Tesla’s ability to turn GAAP profits — albeit at times by selling regulatory credits — is a win, and joining the S&P 500 is great. Delivering 500,000 cars in 2020, a full 75% of GM’s third-quarter deliveries, is impressive as well.

I am certainly not arguing that Tesla is worthless, or that the group of companies like those that comprise the ARK Innovation ETF, are all overpriced. Instead, it seems that today’s market is willing to value stocks not on their past performance, current performance or analyst-expected future performance but on the rosiest future that investors have imagined for their favorite companies.

You can see elements of this logic at work if you ever talk about stocks on the internet. Don’t call Tesla a car company, for example — this despite automotive revenues making up nearly 87% of the company’s Q3 top line. Tesla is a battery company, its religious fans will tell you.

原文链接:https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/08/what-is-up-with-teslas-value/

原文作者:Alex Wilhelm

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