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UBS中国在线音乐产业报告:未来3年市场规模翻翻 短视频和流媒体竞争版权竞争激烈有流量无油水!

中国在线音乐产业

流媒体和短视频正在改变音乐产业

摘要

音乐市场

1

重要的增长机会 - 但新的破坏者正在出现.

Significant growth opportunities—but new disruptors are emergingWe believe online media consumers in China—like their counterparts in developedmarkets—are increasingly willing to pay (report). However, there are two keydifferences in China's music industry. First, live streaming (including online karaoke) willremain a key growth driver in China. In 2018, live-streaming revenue was about 10xmusic subscription revenue, and we forecast a 2018-23 live streaming revenue CAGRof 29% compared to 26% for subscriptions. Second, short video apps, especially TikTok, have become the leading music discovery platforms.

重要的增长机会 - 但新的破坏者正在出现.我们认为中国的网络媒体消费者-就如他们在成熟市场的同行 - 越来越愿意支付(报告)。但是,中国音乐产业有两个关键的不同。首先,直播(包括在线卡拉OK)将仍然是中国的主要增长动力。2018年,直播收入约为音乐订阅收入的10倍,我们预测2018-23实时流媒体收入复合年增长率与订阅的26%相比,这一比例为29%。第二,短视频应用,尤其是TikTok,已成为领先的音乐发现平台。

2

订阅量增长将被衡量,但基于广告的音乐可能会带来上行空间

Subscriptions growth will be measured but ad-based music could drive upsideChina's music industry is at an inflection point similar to those in movies in 2002 andonline video in 2015. But we think music subscriber penetration growth will be mild(from 2.8% in 2018 to 8.6% in 2023E) compared to long-form video (from 1.5% to30% over 2015-18). New shows drive video, but legacy content libraries are moreimportant for music. Platforms will have to slowly degrade their free services to drivemusic listeners to pay. We also believe ad-based music could be a major driver ofmonetisation. In three to five years we estimate it will generate revenue 3x greater than2018 music subscription revenue (under conservative assumptions), especially asChinese music listeners have been conditioned by years of not paying for music and stillpay little for long-form video.

订阅量增长将被衡量,但基于广告的音乐可能会带来上行空间

中国的音乐产业正处于与2002年的电影以及2015年在线视频差不多的转折点。但我们认为音乐用户普及率增长将是温和的(从2018年的2.8%到2023年的8.6%)与长视频相比(从1.5%到2015 - 18年30%)。新节目推动视频,但为内容库提供更多音乐很重要。平台必须慢慢降低他们的免费服务才能驱动音乐听众付钱。我们也相信基于广告的音乐可能是其发展的主要推动力。在三到五年内,我们估计它将产生比收入高3倍的收入2018年音乐订阅收入(保守假设下),特别是多年来,中国音乐听众一直没有为音乐付费为长视频支付少许费用。

3

Tik Tok正在破坏音乐产业的运作方式

Tik Tok is disrupting how the music industry worksIn the past two years, Tik Tok has been the largest emerging traffic pool in China'smobile internet space. We view music as a deeply rooted element of Tik Tok. It hasalready transformed China’s music value chain by becoming the largest marketingchannel, and is reportedly planning to enter the music streaming business overseas. Ouranalysis indicates 40-70% of top-ranked music becomes popular due to exposure onTik Tok, and we estimate it is 20x more influential than leading music and video appslike QQ Music and iQiyi, in terms of the number of music clips played.

Tik Tok正在破坏音乐产业的运作方式。在过去的两年里,Tik Tok一直是中国最大的移动互联网空间新兴流量池。我们将音乐视为Tik Tok的根深蒂固的元素。它有通过成为最大的市场营销,已经改变了中国的音乐价值链据称正在计划进军海外音乐流媒体业务。我们的分析表明,40-70%的顶级音乐因Tik Tok曝光而变得流行,就播放的音乐片段而言,我们估计它比领先的音乐和视频APP,QQ音乐和爱奇艺的影响力高20倍。

Initiated coverage of TME (Neutral) balancing growth and competitionWe think Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), China’s largest music platform bymonthly active users (MAU) and subscriber base, has significant long-term upsidepotential. However, that is offset by near-term margin pressure due to competition andlicensing fees (see our initiation of coverage).

首次评级TME(中性)平衡增长充满竞争。我们认为就每月活跃用户(MAU)和用户订阅而言,腾讯音乐娱乐(TME)是中国最大的音乐平台之一,具有显着的长期上升空间潜在。然而,就短期而言,由于竞争和版权费近期利润率有压力。

Q: Can China's music subscription revenue doublein three years?

问:中国的音乐订阅收入三年内能否翻番?

Q: Will the rise of Tik Tok be a disruptive force forChina's existing music channels and labels?

问:Tik Tok的崛起是否会成为中国现有的音乐频道和品牌破坏性的力量?

  • 发表于:
  • 原文链接https://kuaibao.qq.com/s/20190811A07SPS00?refer=cp_1026
  • 腾讯「腾讯云开发者社区」是腾讯内容开放平台帐号(企鹅号)传播渠道之一,根据《腾讯内容开放平台服务协议》转载发布内容。
  • 如有侵权,请联系 cloudcommunity@tencent.com 删除。

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