J.P.摩根、UBS、瑞信、汇丰、巴黎银行最新量化/投资报告（附下载）

衰退风险模型更新：风险达到新的扩张高点

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UBS（瑞银）

亚太地区股票策略：猪年的关键问题 We identify the key debates that are likely to drive markets in the year ahead, with 15 pivotal questions from the sectors that we believe are likely to matter. These sectors are made up of the five biggest positive and negative contributors to APAC equities in 2018, and therefore have the potential to be big swing sectors again this year too. We've also identified five sectors that we see as potential wildcards based on our analysts forecasting large upside to price targets in big sectors. Our analysts identify and discuss the key debate in each of these sectors.

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瑞信

全球股票策略：风险在哪里？

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HSBC（汇丰）

全球多资产策略：不屈服 We have been constructive on risk assets since early-January. We see little reason to change this view:

• The relative performance of DM equities vs global sovereigns is anything but stretched. Any further significant declines in equities and DM sovereign bond yields from current levels would result in the market overly discounting recession fears again (see Ceiling and Floors, 28 Jan).
• The rates market has already largely priced the above growth concerns. US activity surprises have diverged from 10Y UST yields in recent weeks and Fed funds futures have priced out any possibility of rate hikes this year.
• Our surprise diffusion indicators also continue to be supportive for risk assets.
• Sentiment and technicals are also not overly bullish yet.

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全球股票策略：如何操作 1、Use of cash is more important as growth slows. We expect higher dividends, deleveraging, capex and R&D but slower M&A and buybacks 2、We present five stock screens highlighting global leaders of these cash uses. R&D has outperformed over the last five years 3、Our global and sector deep-dive highlights upside to capex; under-appreciated dividends; and buyback importance, amongst others

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2019年中国资产配置报告 1、China’s economy and currency look set for a bumpy ride this year. 2、But we still see plenty of potential upside for the A- and H-share markets as well as government bonds. 3、This report summarises the views of our macro teams, equity analysts and strategists.

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中国内部市场：这次不一样 1、Policy easing this time targets mainly the private corporate sector rather than SOEs and the property market 2、Combined with reforms aiming at levelling the playfield, the easing alleviates major constraints on private-sector business investment, benefiting more than 80% of urban workers 3、It also re-allocates capital to more efficient sectors – the key to deleveraging

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巴黎银行

新兴市场投资策略：收入-无事生非 The earnings season kicks off in Europe next week. Although we expect earnings to be below current market consensus, we believe equity markets are currently pricing an earnings recession which we think is unjustified. We believe European small and mid-cap stocks could surprise the most in the current earnings season. We maintain a positive bias towards European value sectors including Banks, Insurance, Oil & Gas and Mining. We are also positive on core equity markets such as French and German equities. We see risks in UK domestic equities, Swedish and Italian equities。

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