成功的秘诀在于迭代，在于迅速得到真实的反馈

成功的秘诀在于迭代，在于迅速得到反馈。

由于 ego 太大，或者容易自己感动自己，很多人不知道自己长期坚持的设想，其实是不切实际的想象。

实际上，我们很难凭空判断什么设想是有效的，什么样的产品是符合市场需求的。

靠谱的办法是，将产品投放到市场上，看看市场的真实反馈，如果没能掀起一丝波澜，就迅速诊断原因，迅速纠错。

反馈得越快越好，因为成本越低；迭代次数越多越好，因为越容易成功。

Slack 最初是一家名为 Tiny Speck 的游戏公司；

Twitter 最初是一款名为 Odeo 的播客应用；

Instagram 最初是一款名为 Burbn 的提供定位服务的应用。

每个人都会犯错，关键在于遇到不顺利的时候，能够抛弃执念，能够及时调整，积极变革，把无效的东西转变为有效的东西。

I want to talk about, since it's come up a few times, pivoting or ending projects, because there's a, in some aspects, a fantasizing of perseverance, in a lot of places, including Silicon Valley and the world of tech. And yet, if you look at a lot of the largest public successes, many of them had some type of pivot or shutting down of something that wasn't working. How do you know it's the right time to stop? And when, how does one go about making that difficult decision? Like, are there telltale signs that it's not that another 50% of effort is required and another x number of hours per day, but like this is fundamentally flawed in some way that is going to prevent it from working.

我想聊一聊，因为我们已经提到过好几次这个话题，就是项目的迭代或终结，因为在很多地方，包括硅谷和科技界，抱着一种不切实际的坚持。然而，如果你认真观察大众眼中的很多成功案例，你会发现，很多成功案例都经历过某种程度的迭代，或关闭过一些走不通的项目。你怎么知道什么时间停下脚步？当某个项目无法成功，不是说再投入50%的努力和每天再投入x个小时就能成功，而是因为在某种程度上存在一些根本性的缺陷，阻碍了项目的成功。在做这种艰难决定的时候，有什么蛛丝马迹吗？

I think let's take this question in two parts. First is, let's just talk about the premise that most successful things are pivot, which I believe is true. One of the really fun things to do is actually, do know the way back machine? I do. Right, I think it still exists. I haven't tried it a long time, but you can go and type in any web address. And then I think it allows you, like select the date of that website.

我认为，这个问题要分为两个部分回答。首先，我们谈谈一个前提，即大多数成功的事物都是经过迭代而来的，这是真实的。其中一件非常有意思的真相实际上是，你知道返程器吗？我知道。我想这项服务还存在。我很久没用过返程器了，但你输入任何网址，然后返程器允许你，选择查看该网站的日期。

【"The Wayback Machine" 是互联网档案馆（Internet Archive）提供的一项服务，允许用户查看以前日期的网页快照。用户可以输入特定的网页地址，然后选择查看该网页在过去某个日期的快照，以便了解网页在不同时间点的变化和发展。这个服务允许用户追溯网页的历史记录。】

So you can basically see the history of the web. It's super interesting. Go to YouTube and figure out when YouTube was founded. I can't remember, but like you can look it up on wikipedia, right? And go to that date, like around the beginning. You will see YouTube as a dating site before it became YouTube, what we know as YouTube, right? Do that for most major things that you get excited about?

你可以大体上查看网页的历史，这超级有意思。比如YouTube，查一下YouTube是何时创立的。我记不清了，但你可以在维基百科上查到，对吧？然后进入那个日期，比如某个初创时的日期。你会看到YouTube在成为现在的YouTube之前是一个约会网站，对吧？你感兴趣的大多数重要事物，你都可以通过返程器进行回溯。

Or like, look up the history of Facebook when it was facemash before, and it was something before that. The only one that I don't think was a pivot was Google, and they've done pretty well. So that's the one counter example. Like that literally was their project, and they made it a company and it worked really well. So I don't know.

或者，比如查一下Facebook的历史，查一下Facebook还叫Facemash的日期，查一下之前又是其他什么东西。我认为唯一算不上迭代的成功案例是Google，而且Google做得相当成功，Google是唯一的例外。表面上Google确实就是最初的项目，后来发展成了一家公司，而且取得了瞩目的成绩。我不知道Google有没有经过迭代。

But most other projects are pivot from an original idea. I think that's because, one, it's really hard to tell what works, a priority, like doing it before anything, before you actually put it into people's hands. It's really difficult, like, you don't know if it's gonna work. The key to entrepreneurship is failing really quickly. So putting it out there, seeing if it works, if it doesn't, then diagnosing why and then like focusing on how to improve it from there.

但是大多数成功的项目都是从最初的设想中迭代而来。我认为首先是因为，我们很难判断什么样的设想是有效的，最重要的是，在将产品真正交付给用户之前进行测试，这非常困难，你不知道你的产品是否会有效。创业的关键是迅速失败。因此，将产品投放到市场上，看看是否有效，如果无效，然后诊断原因，然后集中精力改进产品。

So one, I agree with the premise that most things are, in fact, like second runs, and then two, the importance of pivot, I think, is that most of the time you get it wrong. So the question is, knowing you're going to get it wrong, how equipped are you to deal with that failure really quickly before you run out of money?

所以，首先，我认为，大多数成功的事物实际上都是第二次尝试，其次，重要的是迭代，大多数时候你都会犯错。所以关键在于，在你明知道会犯错的情况下，你是否有能力在资金消耗完之前迅速改进这个失败？

The entrepreneurs that I have seen do very well are the ones that are equipped and engaged on the change from something that's not working to something that is. Far too many people because of ego or whatever, stick with ideas far too long. I think it ends up really poorly.

我看到的成功的企业家，通常都是那些能够适应并积极把无效产品转变为有效产品的人。因为过于自我或其他原因，太多人坚持设想太久，在我看来，结局会很惨。