研究｜刘生龙、靳天宇、李萌、周绍杰共同在Journal of Human Resources刊文，关注生育政策调整与女性劳动供给

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摘要

使用第六次人口普查的微观数据，我们基于广义的罗伊模型估计了生育对中国农村女性劳动供给的边际处理效应。我们发现，生育意愿的下降放大了生育对女性劳动供给的负面影响，特别是对于教育程度较高的女性。在普遍实施的二孩政策背景下，与政策相关的处理效应表明，在生第二个孩子后，每周的劳动供给减少了7.5至12.3小时。我们的研究意味着，在引入某些生育激励政策时，应该考虑女性的劳动供给会因为生育而下降的问题。

Abstract

▋Journal of Human Resources

November 2024, 59 (6) 1865-1892;

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0620-10989R3

Fertility Policy Adjustments and Female Labor Supply

Estimation of Marginal Treatment Effect Using Chinese Census Data

Shenglong Liu, Tianyu Jin, Meng Li and Shaojie Zhou

Shenglong Liu is Associate Professor at School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, and an affiliate of the Institute for Contemporary China Study.

Tianyu Jin is at Institute of Education, Tsinghua University.

Meng Li is Associate Professor at School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Shaojie Zhou is Professor at School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, and an affiliate of the Institute for Contemporary China Study (zhoushaojie@tsinghua .edu.cn).

生育政策调整与女性劳动供给

刘生龙 靳天宇 李萌 周绍杰

刘生龙：清华大学公共管理学院副教授、清华大学国情研究院副研究员

靳天宇：清华大学教育研究院助理研究员

李萌：上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院长聘副教授，清华大学国情研究院出站博士后

周绍杰：清华大学公共管理学院教授、清华大学国情研究院副院长

Abstract

Using microdata from the sixth census, we estimate the marginal treatment effect of fertility on female labor supply in rural China based on the generalized Roy Model. We find that the decline in childbearing willingness magnifies negative impact of fertility on female labor supply, particularly for women with higher educational attainment. In the context of the universal two‐child policy, the policy‐relevant treatment effects show that weekly labor supply falls by 7.5–12.3 hours after having a second child. Our research implies that female labor supply should be taken into consideration when introducing certain fertility incentive policies.

编辑 | 阮萍晶

审核 | 鄢一龙