人工智能和移动互联网的影响与中国和印度2013-2025年经济增长的对比

In 2013, McKinsey lists 12 disruptive technologies that would have multi-trillion economic impact from 2013 to 2025. Nextbigfuture compared this to expected GDP growth of nations. It is now five years down the line and we can see more about what the GDP growth will likely be and how those technologies are doing.

2013年,麦肯锡公司列举了12项颠覆性的技术,从2013年到2025年这些技术可以产生数万亿美元的经济增长。本站把这些数据跟各国的GDP预期增长额做了对比。如今五年过去了,我们可以更清楚地看到GDP的增长情况,以及那12项技术的发展情况。

There are the IMF nominal GDP estimates for countries in 2013 compared to projections to 2023. This can be extrapolated to 2025.

以下是国际货币基金组织评估的各国2013年名义GDP和预测的各国2023年名义GDP的对比。

我们可以把这个预测推算到2025年。

Country GDP 2013 GDP 2018 GDPe 2023 GDPe 2025 Growth 2013-2025

China 9.6 trillion 14.1 T 21.6 T 24.9 T 15.3 T

USA 16.7 trillion 20.4 T 24.5 T 25.9 T 9.2 T

India 1.9 trillion 2.8 T 4.7 T 5.6 T 3.7 T

Germany 3.7 trillion 4.2 T 5.3 T 5.7 T 2.0 T

Japan 5.2 trillion 5.2 T 6.0 T 6.4 T 1.4 T

South Korea 1.3 trillion 1.7 T 2.2 T 2.4 T 1.1 T

Indonesia 0.9 trillion 1.1 T 1.6 T 1.8 T 0.9 T

Brazil 2.5 trillion 2.1 T 2.7 T 2.9 T 0.4 T

国家 GDP 2013 GDP2018 GDPe 2023 GDPe 2025 2013-2025增长额

中国 9.6万亿 14.1万亿 21.6万亿 24.9万亿 15.3万亿

美国 16.7万亿 20.4万亿 24.5万亿 25.9万亿 9.2万亿

印度 1.9万亿 2.8万亿 4.7万亿 5.6万亿 3.7万亿

德国 3.7万亿 4.2万亿 5.3万亿 5.7万亿 2.0万亿

日本 5.2万亿 5.2万亿 6.0万亿 6.4万亿 1.4万亿

韩国 1.3万亿 1.7万亿 2.2万亿 2.4万亿 1.1万亿

印尼 0.9万亿 1.1万亿 1.6万亿 1.8万亿 0.9万亿

巴西 2.5万亿 2.1万亿 2.7万亿 2.9万亿 0.4万亿

Brazil and Japan have been flat or lost GDP when adjusted for currency over the last five years. Although the IMF has again projected growth for Brazil and Japan, both countries have been going from positive to negative as currency fluctuates.

巴西和日本在过去五年因为经济不景气,所以没有增长,或者因为调整了货币使GDP没有增长(译注:日元从2012年初的1美元兑76日元贬到了2013年底的1比103,现在是1比111。所以这里的意思应该是,美元计价的GDP没有增长)。尽管国际货币基金组织再次预测了巴西和日本的增长,但是随着汇率的波动,两国的增长也一直在正负之间波动。

This was the range of GDP growth estimated by Nextbigfuture in 2013 :

1. China $10-20 trillion

2. United States 4-7 trillion

3. India $2-4 trillion

4. Indonesia $1.5-2.5 trillion

5. Brazil $1-2 trillion

6. Japan $1-2 trillion

以下是本站于2013年预估的GDP增长范围:

1. 中国 10-20万亿

2. 美国 4-7万亿

3. 印度 2-4万亿

4. 印尼 1.5-2.5万亿

5. 巴西 1-2万亿

6. 日本 1-2万亿

The McKinsey Global Institute identified 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. Technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and are familiar.

麦肯锡全球研究所当时列举了12项在未来几年可以驱动大规模经济转型和暴涨的技术。如果报告中的12项技术得以应用,到2025年,这些技术每年将可能贡献14-33万亿美元的GDP。这份报告中列举的技术是经过好几年重复筛选的,每年得出的结果都一样。

2013 Estimates

1. Mobile Internet $3.7-10.5 trillion

2. Automation of knowledge work $5.2-6.7 trillion

3. Internet of things $2.7-6.2 trillion

4. Cloud $1.7-6.2 trillion

5. Advanced robotics $1.7-4.5 trillion

6. Autonomous or near-autonomous cars $0.2-1.9 trillion

7. Next-generation genomics $0.7-1.6 trillion

2013年的评估报告

1. 移动互联网 3.7-10.5万亿

2. 技术岗位自动化 5.2-6.7万亿

3. 物联网 2.7-6.2万亿

4. 云计算 1.7-6.2万亿

5. 高级机器人 1.7-4.5万亿

6. 自动或半自动驾驶 0.2-1.9万亿

7. 下一代基因技术 0.7-1.9万亿

A review in 2018 is that most of these are heading to the high end of the estimated impact. The overall GDP impact is less positive since there is quite a lot impact of technology is taking existing business from other technology. Cloud computing is transformation of data centers and IT.

2018年回看这份报告,我们发现大部分数据都更接近预测范围的最大值。这些技术对总体GDP的效应不是很明显,因为很多技术的经济贡献是建立在其他已有技术之上的,比如云计算是由数据中心和IT技术转变而来的。

McKinsey’s 2013 missed the blockchain and fintech wave. Blockchain and Fintech will likely be several trillion in impact by 2025.

麦肯锡2013年的报告没有想到区块链和金融科技潮。到2025年,这两项技术可能也会贡献几万亿的GDP。

There is overlap and over counting with the various technologies.

有些技术的经济贡献被重叠计算了。

A recent estimate is the global internet of things will be $6.5 trillion in 2024.

一项最新的预测显示全球的物联网产业到2024年将达到6.5万亿美元的产值。

Huawei says the digital economy is currently about $12 trillion and AI will help increase it to $23 trillion in 2025.

华为表示,数字经济目前的价值大约为12万亿美元,到2025年,人工智能将会把这一数字增加到23万亿美元。

Mobile internet measured by ecommerce should be about $7 trillion in 2024 and $9-10 trillion

移动互联网的电子商务板块的价值到2024年应该会达到7万亿左右,2025年将达到9-10万亿。

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Warrentheape 160 points

17 hours ago

More Next Big China fluffing. China is getting hit with tariffs on $200 billion of its goods. This is so bad that the Chinese Ambassador pretty much issued a 'woa are the Chinese' op-ed.

That's the closest thing to begging.

I get a laugh how all the 'experts' totally missed and continue to miss the collapse of the global trading system that is happening right before our eyes.

吹,继续吹。中国的2000亿美元商品马上就要面临关税惩罚了。这对中国来说很严重,以致于中国驻美大使发表了一篇几乎在说“中国人惊呆了”的专栏文章。

这几乎无异于在乞求。

看到“专家”完全没有看清形势,我笑了,他们没有看到的还有全球贸易体系正在我们的眼皮子底下土崩瓦解。

Doctorpat 215 pointsWarrentheape

7 hours ago

I don't think you can take the word of the Chinese ambassador in the middle of a trade war. The Ambassador's statement would have been crafted to produce a given reaction. Nothing more, and nothing less. Just as with the US statements on the same subject.

That's how statements are made at such levels. Unless someone has a "live mic incident" or similar you won't have anything approaching an honest opinion. Or rather, you would only get an honest opinion when they judge that an honest opinion is the optimal thing to say at this point.

This applies to all sorts of things. CEOs make comments about the future of their company. Politicians make promises in elections. A random email states that their product will enhance your bodypart. Someone you meet in a bar at 2 am says how much they admire the light in your eyes...

Don't treat these as "statements" the way you would from a human being. Treat them as an indication of how they would like you to respond.

我不认为你能明白中国大使在贸易战期间说的话。他的话语是为了对事件进行例行回应精心设计的。没有那么多意思。就像美国就同一事件发表的声明一样。

像这种级别的声明就是这么回事。除非有人不小心泄露了,否则你是听不到任何真实想法的。或者,只有当他们认为说出真实想法是最有利的事情时,你才能听到他们的真实想法。这个规则适用于所有事情,比如:CEO谈论他们公司的未来时;政客们在竞选中许下承诺时;广告邮件说他们的产品可以改善你的身体时;凌晨2点在酒吧碰到的人说你眼睛里放出的光芒让他/她非常崇拜时。

不要把这些“话语”当作人类说的话,就当是他们想要你作出某种回应而发出的信号就行了。

Godfree Roberts25 points

2 days ago

'Nominal' means 'in name only'.

Nominal amounts arere utterly useless and misleading.

Please use PPP, like the CIA does, and the DoD and WTO...

“名义”是指“有名无实”

名义上的数额是完全没用的并且是误导人的。

请像中情局、国防部和世贸组织一样,使用购买力平价GDP。

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