In 2013, McKinsey lists 12 disruptive technologies that would have multi-trillion economic impact from 2013 to 2025. Nextbigfuture compared this to expected GDP growth of nations. It is now five years down the line and we can see more about what the GDP growth will likely be and how those technologies are doing.


There are the IMF nominal GDP estimates for countries in 2013 compared to projections to 2023. This can be extrapolated to 2025.



Country GDP 2013 GDP 2018 GDPe 2023 GDPe 2025 Growth 2013-2025

China 9.6 trillion 14.1 T 21.6 T 24.9 T 15.3 T

USA 16.7 trillion 20.4 T 24.5 T 25.9 T 9.2 T

India 1.9 trillion 2.8 T 4.7 T 5.6 T 3.7 T

Germany 3.7 trillion 4.2 T 5.3 T 5.7 T 2.0 T

Japan 5.2 trillion 5.2 T 6.0 T 6.4 T 1.4 T

South Korea 1.3 trillion 1.7 T 2.2 T 2.4 T 1.1 T

Indonesia 0.9 trillion 1.1 T 1.6 T 1.8 T 0.9 T

Brazil 2.5 trillion 2.1 T 2.7 T 2.9 T 0.4 T

国家 GDP 2013 GDP2018 GDPe 2023 GDPe 2025 2013-2025增长额

中国 9.6万亿 14.1万亿 21.6万亿 24.9万亿 15.3万亿

美国 16.7万亿 20.4万亿 24.5万亿 25.9万亿 9.2万亿

印度 1.9万亿 2.8万亿 4.7万亿 5.6万亿 3.7万亿

德国 3.7万亿 4.2万亿 5.3万亿 5.7万亿 2.0万亿

日本 5.2万亿 5.2万亿 6.0万亿 6.4万亿 1.4万亿

韩国 1.3万亿 1.7万亿 2.2万亿 2.4万亿 1.1万亿

印尼 0.9万亿 1.1万亿 1.6万亿 1.8万亿 0.9万亿

巴西 2.5万亿 2.1万亿 2.7万亿 2.9万亿 0.4万亿

Brazil and Japan have been flat or lost GDP when adjusted for currency over the last five years. Although the IMF has again projected growth for Brazil and Japan, both countries have been going from positive to negative as currency fluctuates.


This was the range of GDP growth estimated by Nextbigfuture in 2013 :

1. China $10-20 trillion

2. United States 4-7 trillion

3. India $2-4 trillion

4. Indonesia $1.5-2.5 trillion

5. Brazil $1-2 trillion

6. Japan $1-2 trillion


1. 中国 10-20万亿

2. 美国 4-7万亿

3. 印度 2-4万亿

4. 印尼 1.5-2.5万亿

5. 巴西 1-2万亿

6. 日本 1-2万亿

The McKinsey Global Institute identified 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. Technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and are familiar.


2013 Estimates

1. Mobile Internet $3.7-10.5 trillion

2. Automation of knowledge work $5.2-6.7 trillion

3. Internet of things $2.7-6.2 trillion

4. Cloud $1.7-6.2 trillion

5. Advanced robotics $1.7-4.5 trillion

6. Autonomous or near-autonomous cars $0.2-1.9 trillion

7. Next-generation genomics $0.7-1.6 trillion


1. 移动互联网 3.7-10.5万亿

2. 技术岗位自动化 5.2-6.7万亿

3. 物联网 2.7-6.2万亿

4. 云计算 1.7-6.2万亿

5. 高级机器人 1.7-4.5万亿

6. 自动或半自动驾驶 0.2-1.9万亿

7. 下一代基因技术 0.7-1.9万亿

A review in 2018 is that most of these are heading to the high end of the estimated impact. The overall GDP impact is less positive since there is quite a lot impact of technology is taking existing business from other technology. Cloud computing is transformation of data centers and IT.


McKinsey’s 2013 missed the blockchain and fintech wave. Blockchain and Fintech will likely be several trillion in impact by 2025.


There is overlap and over counting with the various technologies.


A recent estimate is the global internet of things will be $6.5 trillion in 2024.


Huawei says the digital economy is currently about $12 trillion and AI will help increase it to $23 trillion in 2025.


Mobile internet measured by ecommerce should be about $7 trillion in 2024 and $9-10 trillion





原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:星际圣母 转载请注明出处


Warrentheape 160 points

17 hours ago

More Next Big China fluffing. China is getting hit with tariffs on $200 billion of its goods. This is so bad that the Chinese Ambassador pretty much issued a 'woa are the Chinese' op-ed.

That's the closest thing to begging.

I get a laugh how all the 'experts' totally missed and continue to miss the collapse of the global trading system that is happening right before our eyes.




Doctorpat 215 pointsWarrentheape

7 hours ago

I don't think you can take the word of the Chinese ambassador in the middle of a trade war. The Ambassador's statement would have been crafted to produce a given reaction. Nothing more, and nothing less. Just as with the US statements on the same subject.

That's how statements are made at such levels. Unless someone has a "live mic incident" or similar you won't have anything approaching an honest opinion. Or rather, you would only get an honest opinion when they judge that an honest opinion is the optimal thing to say at this point.

This applies to all sorts of things. CEOs make comments about the future of their company. Politicians make promises in elections. A random email states that their product will enhance your bodypart. Someone you meet in a bar at 2 am says how much they admire the light in your eyes...

Don't treat these as "statements" the way you would from a human being. Treat them as an indication of how they would like you to respond.




Godfree Roberts25 points

2 days ago

'Nominal' means 'in name only'.

Nominal amounts arere utterly useless and misleading.

Please use PPP, like the CIA does, and the DoD and WTO...




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