经济‖A slow unravelling

Global supply chains

全球供应链

A slow unravelling

缓慢解体

Supply chains are undergoing their most dramatic transformation in decades. This will be wrenching for many firms, argues Vijay Vaitheeswaran

供应链正在经历几十年来最剧烈的转变。本专题作者范思杰认为，这对许多公司来说都非常痛苦

TOM LINTON, chief procurement and supply-chain officer at Flex, an American contract-manufacturing giant, has his finger on The Pulse. That is the name of his firm’s whizzy command centre in California, which is evocative of a Pentagon war room. The kit allows him to monitor Flex’s 16,000 suppliers and 100-plus factories, producing everything from automotive systems to cloud-computing kit for over 1,000 customers worldwide. Mr Linton is one of the acknowledged kings of the supply chain—the mechanism at the heart of globalisation of the past few decades by which raw materials, parts and components are exchanged across multiple national boundaries before being incorporated into finished goods. Ask him about the future, however, and he answers ominously: “We’re heading into a post-global world.”

美国合约制造巨头伟创力（Flex）的首席采购与供应链官蒂姆·林顿（Tom Linton）时刻都在“搭脉”——该公司设在加州的先进的指挥中心名叫“脉搏”（The Pulse），让人想起五角大楼的作战室。这套工具使他能够监控伟创力的16,000家供应商和100多家工厂，它们为全球1000多家客户生产从汽车系统到云计算套件的所有产品。林顿是供应链界公认的王者之一。过去几十年来，供应链是全球化的核心机制，原材料、零部件在被纳入成品之前通过它穿越多条国境线。然而，问问他对未来怎么看，他的回答让人感到不祥：“我们正在进入一个后全球化的世界。”

A few years ago that would have been a heretical thought. The combination of the information-technology revolution, which made communications affordable and reliable, and the entry of China into the world economy, which provided bountiful cheap labour, had transformed manufacturing into a global enterprise. In his book “The Great Convergence”, Richard Baldwin argues that the resulting blend of Western industrial know-how and Asian manufacturing muscle fuelled the hyper-globalisation of supply chains. From 1990 to 2010, trade boomed thanks to tariff cuts, cheaper communications and lower-cost transport.

放在几年前，这种想法肯定是个异端。信息技术革命让通信变得廉价又可靠，加上**进入世界经济带来了丰富的廉价劳动力，让制造业转变为一项全球性活动。理查德·鲍德温（Richard Baldwin）在他的《大融合》（The Great Convergence）一书中指出，西方的工业知识由此与亚洲的制造能力融合起来，推动了供应链的高度全球化。从1990年到2010年，关税削减、通信成本降低和廉价运输让贸易蓬勃发展。

Look beyond politics , though , and you will find that supply chains were already undergoing the most rapid change in decades in response to deeper trends in business , technology and society . The rise of Amazon , Alibaba and other e-commerce giants has persuaded consumers that they can have an endless variety of products delivered instantly . This is putting enormous pressure on MNCs to modify and modernise their supply chains to keep pace with advancing innovations and evolving consumer preferences .

但是，抛开政治不谈，面对商业、技术和社会的更深层趋势，你会发现供应链本已在发生几十年来最迅速的变化。亚马逊、阿里巴巴和其他电子商务巨头的崛起使消费者相信他们可以立即拿到品类无限的各种产品。这给跨国公司带来了巨大的压力，迫使它们调整供应链并使其现代化，以跟上日新月异的创新和不断变化的消费者偏好。

Arms race

军备竞赛

The biggest force for change is technology . Artificial intelligence ( AI ), predictive data analytics and robotics are already changing how factories , warehouses , distribution centres and delivery systems work .3D printing , blockchain technologies and autonomous vehicles could have a big impact in future . Some even dream of autonomous supply chains requiring no human intervention .

变革的最大动力是技术。人工智能（ AI ）、预测性数据分析和机器人技术已经在改变工厂、仓库、配送中心和送货系统的工作方式。3D打印、区块链技术和无人驾驶汽车未来可能会产生重大影响。有些人甚至想象着不需要人为干预的自主供应链。

However , technological advances also raise the spectre of an arms race in supply-chain security . Aggressive private hackers and state-sponsored cyber-warriors appear to have the upper hand over beleaguered corporations and governments . Recent headlines have focused on America ’ s crackdown on Huawei ,a Chinese telecoms giant . But the issues involved go far beyond one firm , given that much of the world ’ s electronics-manufacturing and hardware innovation takes place in China .

然而，技术进步也令人担忧一场供应链安全的军备竞赛正在迫近。好战的私人黑客和国家支持的网络部队似乎比腹背受敌的公司和政府更占上风。最近的头条新闻都在关注美国对**电信巨头华为的打击，但既然世界上大部分电子制造和硬件创新都发生在中国，背后的问题远不止这一家公司。

If a technology cold war breaks out , it would smash today ’ s highly integrated technology supply chains and force an expensive realignment . It may even lead to a bifurcation in the rollout of 5G, a new telecoms-network technology that is the essential enabler of coming marvels such as the internet of things ( IOT ). With the proliferation of inexpensive sensors , the IOT will allow homes , factories and cities to be digitally monitored and managed . A “ splinternet of things ”( in which America followed one standard and China another ) would not only be costly and inefficient , it would also fail to address legitimate security concerns about future cyber-threats in the age of 5G.

如果技术冷战爆发，它将粉碎当今高度集成的技术供应链，并迫使企业做出昂贵的调整。它甚至可能导致5G的推广一分为二。这种新的电信网络技术是物联网（ IOT ）等未来奇迹的重要驱动力。随着廉价传感器的普及，物联网将使得家庭、工厂和城市可被数字化监控管理。“分裂物联网”（美国遵循一套标准，**遵循另一套）不仅成本高，效率低，而且还无法解决对5G时代网络威胁的合理的安全担忧。

Even if Huawei is eventually spared , and the truce in America ’ s trade war with China turns into a frosty peace , the era of frictionless supply lines flowing from Shenzhen to San Francisco and Stuttgart has ended . As globalisation is transformed into something messier , the consequences for MNCs and the world economy could be momentous .

即使HW最终幸免于难，且*美贸易战的休战演变成冷淡的和平，从深圳流向旧金山和斯图加特的无摩擦供应线时代已经结束。随着全球化转变为某种更混乱的东西，可能对跨国公司和世界经济带来重大的影响。

This report will show that supply chains were already becoming shorter , smarter and faster before politicians started taking a hammer to the trading system . Given today ’ s riskier world , supply chains will need to become safer too . This transformation threatens firms that have entrenched supply networks , but it also presents opportunities for those that adapt nimbly .

本期专题报道将阐明，在政客们开始打砸贸易体系之前，供应链就已经变得更短、更智能、更快。鉴于当今世界的风险更高，供应链也需要变得更加安全。这种转变威胁到了已经建立起固定供应网络的公司，但也为那些能灵活调适的公司带来了机会。

本文章设计敏感词……所以我只能节选了一部分