《城市交通》：中国城市交通发展双语文章推荐

在当今快速城市化和交通需求不断演变的背景下，城市交通的发展战略和规划显得尤为重要。本期精选了来自《城市交通》5篇双语文章，深入探讨了多个关键议题。这些文章不仅涵盖了大数据时代交通需求模型的范式转变，还分析了建设交通强国对城市交通发展的要求，以及中国城市交通发展战略的演进过程。

每篇双语文章都提供了丰富的数据和案例分析，展示了城市交通规划领域的最新研究成果和国际学术动态。通过对这些文章的深入了解，读者可以更好地理解城市交通发展的趋势和挑战，为城市交通领域的研究者和实践者提供新的思路和见解，欢迎阅读。

精选文章·Selected Articles

01

大数据时代交通需求模型范式转变的思考

Reflections on the Paradigm Shift in Travel Demand Models in the Big Data Era

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【摘要】大数据给交通需求模型开发基础带来了革命性的变化。对范式转变的思考既是对新时代数据条件变化的适应，也是提升交通需求模型精度的必然要求。基于基础数据条件的变化，对交通需求模型四种范式转变进行总结和思考：从数学优化到因果推断，强化模型对出行行为的解释能力；从比例因子到概率抽样，使得模型的物理意义更为明确；从整体重构到增量模型，实现对现状需求的继承和迭代演化；从有限约束收敛到先验实证，提升交通需求模型精度。指出对于交通治理实践运用和科学研究而言，模型精度是检验模型质量的唯一和最高标准。对范式转变的重视不是为了否定既往交通需求模型技术路线，而是在继承中创新发展，提高交通需求模型对现实物理世界的模拟能力和预测能力。

【Abstract】Big data has brought revolutionary changes to the developing basis of travel demand models. Reflections on the paradigm shift is not only an adaptation to changes in data conditions in the new era but also a necessary requirement for improving the accuracy of travel demand models. This paper summarizes and contemplates four paradigm shifts in travel demand models based on changes in foundational data conditions. These shifts include: enhancing the explanatory power of models on travel behavior by transitioning from mathematical optimization to causal inference; clarifying the physical meaning of models by moving from proportional factors to probabilistic sampling; achieving inheritance and iterative evolution of current demand by transitioning from holistic reconstruction to incremental models; and improving the precision of travel demand models by moving from finite constraint convergence to prior empirical justification. This paper points out that for both practical application and scientific research in transportation governance, model accuracy is the sole and highest standard for evaluating model quality. Emphasizing paradigm shifts is not meant to negate previous technical approaches in travel demand models but to innovate and develop through inheritance, thus enhancing the capacity of models to simulate and predict the real world.

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02

建设交通强国对城市交通发展的要求

Requirements for Urban Transportation Development in Building a Strong Transportation Nation

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【摘要】面向基本实现现代化、建设现代化强国的新时代，有必要立足于服务国家重大战略，综合分析城市交通在支撑交通强国及现代化城市建设中的重要作用，推进城市交通高质量发展。从满足城市居民美好生活向往、影响城市可持续发展、带动培育现代化都市圈等方面分析城市交通提升城市竞争力和国家竞争力的重要支撑作用。总结城市交通高质量发展需关注的重点问题，包括创新城市交通规划的理念和范式、坚持城市公共交通优先发展的国家城市发展战略、优化机动车保有及使用调控政策、形成带动培育现代化都市圈的交通体系、推进城市交通治理现代化等。推动城市交通高质量发展，应围绕服务于人的需求，组织城市高效、安全、低耗、可持续运行，贯彻建设交通强国和现代化城市的要求，实现城市交通治理能力现代化。

【Abstract】In the new era of achieving modernization in China and building a strong modern nation, it is essential to base efforts on serving major national strategies, comprehensively analyze the vital role of urban transport in supporting a nation with strong transportation network and modern cities, and promote high-quality urban transport development. This paper analyzes the important supporting role of urban transport in enhancing urban competitiveness and national competitiveness, with the focus on fulfilling urban residents’ aspirations for a better life, impacting sustainable urban development, and driving the cultivation of modern metropolitan areas. Key issues for high-quality urban transport development are summarized, including innovating urban transport planning concepts and paradigms, adhering to the national urban development strategy that prioritizes urban public transit development, optimizing policies for vehicle ownership and usage control, creating a transportation system that drives the cultivation of modern metropolitan areas, and advancing the modernization of urban transport governance. To promote high-quality urban transport development, it is critical to center on meeting human needs, organizing efficient, safe, low-consumption, and sustainable urban operations, and implementing the requirements for building a strong transportation nation and modern cities, and achieving modernization of urban transport governance capabilities.

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03

延续与求变——中国城市交通发展战略演进

Continuity and Change: Evolution of Urban Transport Development Strategy in China

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【摘要】城市交通发展战略是城市交通发展的长期纲领，既有需要坚持与延续的目标，也有需要调整的内容与重点。总结国内外城市交通发展战略的内涵特征，将城市交通发展置于中国城镇化、机动化、治理现代化的大背景中，系统梳理1995年《中国城市交通发展战略》和2024年《面向2035年中国城市交通发展战略》的时代特征、编制过程、内容特色、行动重点。在回顾中国城市交通发展战略的作用与城市交通发展路径选择的基础上，解读城市交通作为城市基础公共服务的新定位与新要求，比较两版城市交通发展战略在目标、评价标准上的继承性，在重点行动、任务要求上的拓展与调整，由此进一步阐述重新制定中国城市交通发展战略的初心与目的，期望为进入城镇化、机动化下半场的中国城市交通发展凝聚更多共识、坚定发展方向。

【Abstract】Urban transport development strategy is a long-term guideline for urban transport development, which includes both goals that need to be adhered to and continued, as well as contents and priorities that need to be adjusted. This paper summarizes the connotation and characteristics of urban transport development strategies in China and abroad and places urban transport development in the context of China’s urbanization, motorization, and modernization of governance. The paper systematically reviews the era characteristics, compilation process, content features, and action priorities of the Urban Transport Development Strategy in China issued in 1995 and the Towards 2035: China’s Urban Transport Development Strategy issued in 2024. Based on reviewing the role of China’s urban transport development strategies and the choice of urban transport development paths, the paper interprets the new positioning and requirements of urban transport as a fundamental public service in cities, compares the inheritance of development goals and evaluation criteria between the two versions of urban transport development strategies, and expands and adjusts the key actions and task requirements. Therefore, the paper further elaborates on the original intention and purpose of re-formulating China’s urban transport development strategy, hoping to gather more consensus and firm development direction for China’s urban transport in the second half of urbanization and motorization.

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04

中国城市交通发展现状与面向2035年展望

Urban Transportation Development in China: Current State and 2035 Prospect

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【摘要】深入剖析中国城市交通基础特征、精准识别存在问题和研判发展趋势是谋划城市交通发展战略的基础性工作。总结近40年中国城市交通需求特征及变化，出行类型多元化和出行目的细分、通勤距离普遍增长是城镇化进程深入过程中出行特征呈现的两大转变。从道路设施、公共交通系统和交通信息化3个方面回顾交通基础设施和信息化发展取得的显著成就，指出当前城市交通系统存在与城市空间发展不协调、系统自身运行效益下滑、治理能力有待进一步提升等现实问题。展望2035年，城市交通发展应回归满足人的需求和支持城市高效运行的价值导向，充分利用数字化、信息化和智能化技术推动交通供需模式、治理体系和治理能力的创新发展，促进交通与城市空间、经济、社会、生态的深度融合，迈向高质量、高可达和包容、可持续的发展图景。

【Abstract】An in-depth analysis of the foundational characteristics of urban transport in China, the accurate identification of existing issues, and the projection of future development trends are fundamental tasks for formulating urban transport development strategies. This paper summarizes the characteristics and evolution in urban transport demand over the past four decades in China, highlighting two prominent trends amid the ongoing urbanization process: the diversification of travel types and purposes, and the general increase in commuting distances. Reviewing the outstanding achievements in transportation infrastructure and informationization in road facilities, public transportation system, and transportation informationization, the paper highlights practical issues in China's urban transport system, such as its misalignment with the urban spatial development, declining operational efficiency, and need for enhanced governance capabilities. Looking towards 2035, urban transport development should return to the value orientation that prioritizes meeting people's needs and supporting efficient urban operations. Digital, information-based, and intelligent technologies should be leveraged to drive innovations in developing transportation supply-demand models, governance systems, and governance capabilities, to further promote a deep integration with urban space, economy, society, and ecology and advance towards a vision of high-quality, highly accessible, inclusive, and sustainable development.

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05

《面向2035年 中国城市交通发展战略》成果解读

Discussion on the Accomplishments ofTowards 2035: China’s Urban Transport Development Strategy

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【摘要】城市交通问题是城市全体居民生存和发展的基本需要，在城市高质量发展和新型城镇化战略中发挥着举足轻重的作用。在国家自然科学基金系列课题成果的基础上，课题组围绕城市交通问题这个主题作了系统研究，并撰写了《面向2035年中国城市交通发展战略》(以下简称《战略》)。《战略》提出城市交通学是城市科学的组成部分；城市交通问题归属于城市的基础公共服务范畴，本质是提升城市的基础公共服务水平。然后，从战略方向、新要求、治理机制、城市基础公共服务体系的要求与标准等方面论述城市交通发展的新目标。最后，提出建立和完善城市交通的基础公共服务体系和运行机制的十项行动，为未来城市交通发展明确了行动方向。

【Abstract】Through the lens of economic and social development with the urban modernization progress, the collective body of theories and concerns related to urban mobility is denoted as urban transport issues. These issues reflect fundamental needs for the survival and development of urban residents, playing a vital role in the high-quality development of urban areas and strategies of new urbanization. Leveraging the achievements of the National Natural Science Foundation projects, the research team systematically investigated urban transport concerns and published the Towards 2035: China’s Urban Transport Development Strategy (hereafter referred to as the Strategy). The Strategy addresses the theory of urban mobility as an integral part of urban science, and categorizes urban transport issues as fundamental public services in cities, which are essentially to improve the level of fundamental urban public services. Subsequently, the Strategy identifies new objectives for urban transport development in terms of strategic direction, new requirements, governance mechanisms, and the requirements and standards of the fundamental urban public service system. Finally, the Strategy proposes ten actions to establish and enhance the fundamental public service system and operational mechanisms for urban transport, clarifying the direction of future urban transport development.

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期刊推荐·Recommend Journal

《城市交通》由住房和城乡建设部主管，中国城市规划设计研究院主办。

《城市交通》杂志汇聚知名教授、行业专家、理论研究新秀的优秀学术论文，是展示中国城市交通规划领域最新研究成果和国际学术动态的重要平台。本刊定位为搭建城市交通理论与实践桥梁的学术性期刊，以剖析政策与规划的制定、并跟踪实施效果及改进建议为重点，分析力求体现独到见解、原创性及时效性。

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